CeeDee Lamb Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 11:46 PM UTC

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+130/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 137.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to garner 9.3 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 57.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the 3rd-best LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.
The Dallas Cowboys have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have incorporated play action on a measly 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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