CeeDee Lamb Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 143.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to accumulate 9.7 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
CeeDee Lamb has been much more involved in his team's passing offense this year (28.8% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (19.7%).

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (63.4%) to WRs this year (63.4%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks grade out as the 5th-best CB corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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