CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 9:26 PM UTC

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 77.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 75.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 77.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Cowboys, who are -3-point underdogs.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (41.1 per game) this year.
The predictive model expects CeeDee Lamb to accumulate 9.1 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to wideouts.
CeeDee Lamb rates as one of the top wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a terrific 89.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Cowboys.
After accruing 94.0 air yards per game last year, CeeDee Lamb has produced significantly less this year, now sitting at 79.0 per game.
CeeDee Lamb's 60.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 67.6.
The Eagles pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 2.83 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in the league.

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