CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 65.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 69.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 3.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Cowboys are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.53 seconds per play.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 44.5 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: most in the NFL.
The leading projections forecast CeeDee Lamb to total 8.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

After averaging 94.0 air yards per game last year, CeeDee Lamb has posted significant losses this year, currently pacing 66.0 per game.
CeeDee Lamb's 56.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 67.6.
The 49ers pass defense has shown good efficiency versus wideouts this year, allowing 7.02 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-fewest in football.
When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of LBs has been excellent this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.

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