CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 25, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 71.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 70.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 71.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.43 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to notch 9.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are an enormous 11.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus wideouts since the start of last season, conceding 7.58 yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-least in the league.

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