CeeDee Lamb Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Rams vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+179/-259).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +191 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +179.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys are a 5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to be a much bigger part of his team's air attack near the end zone this week (22.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.7% in games he has played).
CeeDee Lamb has accrued far more air yards this season (111.0 per game) than he did last season (82.0 per game).

Favors Under

CeeDee Lamb's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.2% to 55.9%.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box against opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Dallas Cowboys have incorporated play action on a measly 23.6% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.