CeeDee Lamb Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+174/-240).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.45 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (21.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (12.5% in games he has played).
CeeDee Lamb has compiled a colossal 87.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 88th percentile among wide receivers.
CeeDee Lamb's 79.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 49.1.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
CeeDee Lamb's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.2% to 52.3%.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have utilized play action on a lowly 23.6% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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