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CeeDee Lamb

CeeDee Lamb Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 13

Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts

CeeDee Lamb Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+112/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +136 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +112.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 140.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

CeeDee Lamb has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 18.2% this year, which ranks him in the 76th percentile among wideouts.

CeeDee Lamb has compiled significantly more air yards this year (101.0 per game) than he did last year (79.0 per game).

CeeDee Lamb's 75.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 47.4.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cowboys are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.

The Indianapolis Colts defense has yielded the 2nd-least passing TDs in the league to wide receivers: 0.50 per game this year.

The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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