CeeDee Lamb Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 12:13 AM UTC

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+116/-157).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +133 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to run the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 66.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in football.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to be a more important option in his offense's pass attack near the end zone this week (22.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (8.3% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (62.7%) versus WRs since the start of last season (62.7%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has yielded the 8th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.82 per game since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have incorporated play action on a mere 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.