Cedrick Wilson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Cedrick Wilson

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 24, 2022 7:50 PM UTC

Analysis

Cedrick Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 63.9 plays per game.
Cedrick Wilson has been among the most reliable receivers in the league, catching an impressive 73.4% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
Cedrick Wilson has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in the NFL, averaging a terrific 9.20 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 78th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 119.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Buffalo Bills defense has allowed the least receiving yards per game in football (just 114.0) vs. wideouts since the start of last season.