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Carson Wentz

Carson Wentz TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5

Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans

Carson Wentz TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+182/-265).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -220 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -265.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.8% red zone pass rate.

The Washington Commanders have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 67.0 plays per game.

Carson Wentz has attempted 45.4 throws per game this year, checking in at the 94th percentile among QBs.

Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.

Carson Wentz has been among the best touchdown throwers in football this year, averaging a stellar 2.00 per game while checking in at the 85th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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