Carson Wentz TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Carson Wentz

NFL · Player Props

Carson Wentz

QB · Washington Commanders

TD Passes

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:25 PM EST

Analysis

Carson Wentz TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 10th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.8% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.30 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Detroit Lions defense has allowed the 8th-most passing TDs in the NFL: 1.72 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Washington Commanders have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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