Carson Wentz TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Carson Wentz

NFL · Player Props

Carson Wentz

QB · Washington Commanders

TD Passes

Washington Commanders vs Cleveland Browns · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Carson Wentz TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-170).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 4th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.42 seconds per play.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Carson Wentz has attempted 36.9 throws per game this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile among QBs.
Carson Wentz has been among the leading TD passers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 1.57 per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.
The Cleveland Browns safeties project as the 9th-worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Carson Wentz has been among the least on-target passers in the NFL this year with a 61.5% Completion%, checking in at the 16th percentile.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-lowest level in the NFL against the Cleveland Browns defense this year (68.5%).

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