Carson Wentz Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Carson Wentz

NFL · Player Props

Carson Wentz

QB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Carson Wentz Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 3rd-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 26.71 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Carson Wentz to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (12.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (-3.9% in games he has played).
Carson Wentz's rushing effectiveness has been refined this year, totaling 6.89 yards-per-carry vs a mere 4.67 mark last year.
Carson Wentz has been among the best QBs in the league at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging an impressive 4.36 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 100th percentile.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive ends project as the 7th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

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