Carson Wentz Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Carson Wentz

NFL · Player Props

Carson Wentz

QB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Carson Wentz Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 126.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Carson Wentz to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (13.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.1% in games he has played).
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles project as the worst collection of DTs in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 6-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

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