Cameron Brate Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Cameron Brate

NFL · Player Props

Cameron Brate

TE · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Cameron Brate Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+121/-161).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -161.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Cameron Brate has been used less as a potential target this year (64.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (41.6%).
THE BLITZ projects Cameron Brate to garner 3.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Cameron Brate's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 63.1% to 58.1%.
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties profile as the 7th-best safety corps in the league this year in regard to rushing the passer.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on just 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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