Cameron Brate Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Cameron Brate

NFL · Player Props

Cameron Brate

TE · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Cameron Brate Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+103/-136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 68.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 134.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 63.9 plays per game.
Cameron Brate has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (57.6% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (41.5%).

Favors Under

Cameron Brate's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 63.9% to 58.6%.
Cameron Brate's pass-catching efficiency has declined this season, averaging a measly 4.74 yards-per-target compared to a 6.12 rate last season.
Cameron Brate has been among the weakest tight ends in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.17 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 17th percentile.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

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