Cameron Brate Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Cameron Brate

TE · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Cameron Brate Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+242/-405).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +400 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +242.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 65.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Cameron Brate has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 15.2% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
Cameron Brate has totaled a whopping 24.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 78th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

Cameron Brate has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a mere 61.4% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 13th percentile.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.8%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (62.8%).
The New Orleans Saints defense has given up the least passing TDs in football to tight ends: 0.17 per game since the start of last season.
The New Orleans Saints linebackers rank as the 6th-best LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.