Cam Akers Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Cam Akers

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 9, 2022 12:07 AM EST

Analysis

Cam Akers Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+108/-141).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -141.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Cam Akers to earn 2.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the 4th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 29.0) vs. running backs since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (72.9%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (72.9%).
The Buffalo Bills safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Los Angeles Rams have used play action on just 21.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.