Cam Akers Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Cam Akers

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Carries

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 8, 2022 11:47 PM EST

Analysis

Cam Akers Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+100/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
THE BLITZ projects Cam Akers to earn 12.6 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Cam Akers to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game this week (55.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (18.5% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 2nd-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 34.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 6th-best unit in football since the start of last season with their run defense.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.7% of the time since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.