Calvin Ridley Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Calvin Ridley

NFL · Player Props

Calvin Ridley

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 4:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Calvin Ridley Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Jaguars offense as the 9th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.60 seconds per play.
The model projects Calvin Ridley to garner 8.4 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among WRs.
Calvin Ridley's 60.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 86th percentile for wideouts.
The Jaguars O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Calvin Ridley has been among the worst possession receivers in the NFL, hauling in a measly 50.6% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 13th percentile among WRs
As it relates to safeties rushing the passer, Atlanta's group of safeties has been excellent since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the NFL.

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