Calvin Ridley Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Calvin Ridley

NFL · Player Props

Calvin Ridley

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Calvin Ridley Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+102/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Jaguars, who are -3-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jaguars to pass on 60.4% of their plays: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week.
The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Jaguars this year (a whopping 60.5 per game on average).
The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (39.5 per game) this year.
Calvin Ridley has run a route on 92.0% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 90th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.6 offensive plays run: the 5th-lowest number among all games this week.
Calvin Ridley profiles as one of the worst possession receivers in football, catching just 57.4% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 18th percentile among wide receivers
As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, San Francisco's collection of LBs has been great this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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