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Calvin Austin III

Calvin Austin III Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

Calvin Austin III Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-196/+148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +150 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +148.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual game plan.

With regard to a defense's impact on pace, at 27.61 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 5th-fastest in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time.

Opposing offenses have averaged 41.6 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: most in the NFL.

Calvin Austin has been a more integral piece of his team's air attack this season (13.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (6.7%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 3rd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 52.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The Steelers offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

Calvin Austin ranks as one of the weakest pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a measly 1.7 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 24th percentile among wideouts.

Calvin Austin's 49.7% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a material diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 55.7% rate.

When it comes to safeties pass-rushing, Baltimore's safety corps has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the league.

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