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Calvin Austin III Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-121/-113).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Steelers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.At the moment, the 9th-fastest paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.Calvin Austin has been less involved as a potential target this year (57.0% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (40.3%).After accumulating 23.0 air yards per game last season, Calvin Austin has gotten better this season, currently averaging 41.0 per game.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 54.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.Calvin Austin is positioned as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the league, catching just 56.6% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 15th percentile among WRsThe Philadelphia Eagles defense has given up the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 125.0) vs. WRs this year.This year, the tough Philadelphia Eagles defense has yielded the least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing WRs: a paltry 7.1 yards.When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Philadelphia's CB corps has been tremendous this year, grading out as the best in the league.
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