Caleb Huntley Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Caleb Huntley

NFL · Player Props

Caleb Huntley

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing TD

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 11, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Caleb Huntley Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+418/-924).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -662 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -924.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the most run-oriented offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 52.4% red zone run rate.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
Opposing squads have run for the 5th-most touchdowns in the NFL (1.33 per game) versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year.
The Atlanta Falcons have utilized some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Caleb Huntley to be a much smaller part of his team's running game near the end zone this week (13.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (34.9% in games he has played).
The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year with their run defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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