Cade Otton Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Cade Otton

NFL · Player Props

Cade Otton

TE · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Cade Otton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+104/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Cade Otton has been used less as a potential target this season (86.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (63.9%).
Our trusted projections expect Cade Otton to accumulate 4.7 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Cade Otton's ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 66.2% to 75.2%.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has been torched for the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (77.1%) vs. TEs this year (77.1%).

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive strategy to tilt 4.6% more towards the run game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their usual approach.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.
The Carolina Panthers linebackers grade out as the 4th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.

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