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Cade Otton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-106/-124).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 47.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ -124.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The projections expect Cade Otton to notch 6.4 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile among TEs.Cade Otton has been much more involved in his team's passing attack this season (19.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (12.8%).After totaling 29.0 air yards per game last season, Cade Otton has made big progress this season, currently pacing 37.0 per game.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing game metrics across the board.Cade Otton has notched a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (48.0) this season than he did last season (29.0).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 6.5-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored this week, implying more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 55.8% of their plays: the 11th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are predicted by the model to run just 63.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.With a feeble 72.0% Adjusted Completion Rate (22nd percentile) this year, Cade Otton ranks as one of the most unreliable receivers in football among tight ends.
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