Cade Otton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Cade Otton

NFL · Player Props

Cade Otton

TE · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 27, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Cade Otton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a big 9.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest clip among all teams this week.
Cade Otton has been used less as a potential target this year (82.7% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (63.9%).
The projections expect Cade Otton to garner 4.3 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 77th percentile among TEs.
Cade Otton has notched a colossal 24.0 air yards per game this year: 78th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are expected by the predictive model to call only 62.5 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Buccaneers this year (a lowly 56.3 per game on average).
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
Cade Otton comes in as one of the weakest TEs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 2nd percentile.

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