Cade Otton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Cade Otton

NFL · Player Props

Cade Otton

TE · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Cade Otton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Cade Otton has been used less as a potential target this season (86.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (63.9%).
Our trusted projections expect Cade Otton to accumulate 4.7 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
After accumulating 23.0 air yards per game last season, Cade Otton has posted big gains this season, currently pacing 30.0 per game.
Cade Otton's ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 66.2% to 75.2%.
This year, the weak Carolina Panthers defense has surrendered the 5th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing TEs: a colossal 8.33 yards.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive strategy to tilt 4.6% more towards the run game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their usual approach.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.
With a poor 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) this year, Cade Otton has been among the best TEs in the pass game in football in picking up extra yardage.

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