Cade Otton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Cade Otton

TE · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 3:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Cade Otton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are giant -13.5-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Buccaneers as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (38.7 per game) this year.
Cade Otton's 86.3% Route Participation% this year indicates a noteable improvement in his passing offense volume over last year's 63.9% mark.
This week, Cade Otton is forecasted by the predictive model to rank in the 82nd percentile among TEs with 4.8 targets.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are anticipated by the projections to run just 60.0 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
With a weak 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) this year, Cade Otton rates as one of the leading pass-game tight ends in the league in the open field.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 33.0) versus tight ends this year.
This year, the formidable 49ers defense has allowed the least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a measly 4.7 yards.