Cade Otton Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Cade Otton

NFL · Player Props

Cade Otton

TE · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Cleveland Browns vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Cade Otton Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+422/-939).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -929 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -939.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Cleveland Browns safeties grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.3 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61%) to tight ends this year (61.0%).
The Cleveland Browns defense has yielded the 5th-least touchdowns through the air in the league to tight ends: 0.10 per game this year.

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