Bryce Young TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Bryce Young

NFL · Player Props

Bryce Young

QB · Carolina Panthers

TD Passes

Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 10, 2023 1:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Bryce Young TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+165/-217).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +174 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Carolina Panthers offensive blueprint to skew 6.5% more towards the passing game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
This week's spread implies a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -3-point underdogs.
The 3rd-most plays in football have been run by the Panthers this year (a monstrous 63.8 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-highest rate in the league vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year (75.8% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Carolina Panthers to pass on 56.1% of their downs: the 9th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
The model projects the Panthers to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The projections expect Bryce Young to throw 32.2 passes in this contest, on balance: the 6th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
The Panthers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.

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