Bryce Young TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Bryce Young

NFL · Player Props

Bryce Young

QB · Carolina Panthers

TD Passes

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

Bryce Young TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+170/-220).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass game stats across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered the 7th-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.53 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 11th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 53.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Bryce Young to attempt 32.7 passes in this contest, on average: the 9th-least of all QBs.

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