Bryce Perkins Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Bryce Perkins

NFL · Player Props

Bryce Perkins

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Bryce Perkins Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+420/-932).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -910 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -932.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends rank as the 6th-worst collection of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Rams are a giant 16.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Rams rank as the 5th-least run-oriented team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 34.5% red zone run rate.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
Opposing offenses have run for the 8th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.60 per game) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
The Los Angeles Rams have gone for it on 4th down a measly 14.7% of the time since the start of last season (4th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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