Bryan Edwards Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Bryan Edwards

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving TD

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Bryan Edwards Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+419/-927).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -917 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -927.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have incorporated some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 58.5 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Bryan Edwards has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league, hauling in a measly 57.9% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 13th percentile among wideouts
The New Orleans Saints defense has yielded the 8th-least touchdowns through the air in the league to WRs: 0.82 per game since the start of last season.
The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks project as the 4th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.