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Brock Wright

Brock Wright Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Brock Wright Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-165/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.3 per game) this year.

This year, the weak Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up a colossal 80.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 6th-biggest rate in football.

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Jacksonville's collection of safeties has been atrocious this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 14-point advantage, the Lions are a heavy favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.

Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to be the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions offense to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.72 seconds per play.

Brock Wright's 82.4% Adjusted Catch% this year indicates a significant reduction in his receiving prowess over last year's 92.9% mark.

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