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Brock Wright

Brock Wright Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Brock Wright Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-117/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.3 per game) this year.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has allowed the 2nd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (64.0) versus TEs this year.

This year, the porous Jaguars defense has allowed the 4th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing TEs: a monstrous 9.09 yards.

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Jacksonville's collection of safeties has been atrocious this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 14-point advantage, the Lions are a heavy favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.

Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to be the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions offense to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.72 seconds per play.

Brock Wright's 82.4% Adjusted Catch% this year indicates a significant reduction in his receiving prowess over last year's 92.9% mark.

Brock Wright profiles as one of the worst TEs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.41 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 9th percentile.

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