Brock Wright Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Brock Wright

TE · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Brock Wright Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Lions to call the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.0 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Brock Wright has been among the best possession receivers in the league among tight ends, hauling in an excellent 79.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 89th percentile.
Brock Wright has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in football among TEs, averaging a remarkable 9.74 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while checking in at the 98th percentile.

Favors Under

The Lions are a giant 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to pass on 54.0% of their plays: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Panthers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.2 per game) this year.
When it comes to air yards, Brock Wright grades out in just the 21st percentile among tight ends this year, with just 1.0 per game.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Carolina's group of safeties has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 10th-best in football.