Brock Purdy TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

San Francisco 49ers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -770 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Cincinnati's group of safeties has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 5.5-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach.
The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 3rd-least pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 51.7% red zone pass rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to see just 120.9 total plays called: the fewest on the slate this week.
The 7th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (just 53.9 per game on average).

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