Brock Purdy TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 24, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
With an excellent 68.6% Adjusted Completion% (82nd percentile) this year, Brock Purdy has been among the most on-target QBs in the league.
With an exceptional ratio of 1.67 per game (79th percentile), Brock Purdy places as one of the best TD throwers in football this year.
This year, the poor Vikings defense has allowed a massive 79.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the worst rate in football.
This year, the anemic Minnesota Vikings defense has given up a colossal 1.50 passing TDs per game to opposing quarterbacks: the biggest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-focused offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 52.4% red zone pass rate.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the 49ers are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 62.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.2 plays per game.

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