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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-145/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The San Francisco 49ers have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to mean increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week's contest.

The New York Giants cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers are a giant 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 10th-least pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 54.8% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.7 plays per game.

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