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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy TD Passes
Player Prop Week 22

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+135/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -180.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.

With a remarkable 68.6% Adjusted Completion% (97th percentile) this year, Brock Purdy places among the most accurate quarterbacks in football.

Brock Purdy has been among the top touchdown passers in the league this year, averaging an exceptional 1.83 per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the 49ers as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 58.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 52.6% red zone pass rate.

The 49ers have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 54.1 plays per game.

In this week's contest, Brock Purdy is predicted by the predictive model to have the fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 34.8.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Chiefs, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 25.8 per game) this year.

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