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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17

Washington Commanders vs San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+170/-230).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Commanders defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (38.1 per game) this year.

Brock Purdy profiles as one of the most on-target passers in football this year with an impressive 69.0% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.

With a stellar ratio of 1.93 per game (94th percentile), Brock Purdy rates among the leading touchdown passers in the NFL this year.

This year, the shaky Washington Commanders defense has been torched for a massive 2.20 passing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the highest rate in the league.

When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Washington's LB corps has been dreadful this year, grading out as the 9th-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 14-point advantage, the 49ers are heavily favored in this week's game, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their typical approach.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to pass on 49.6% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

Our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 53.3% red zone pass rate.

The predictive model expects the 49ers to call the 4th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the 49ers this year (a measly 53.1 per game on average).

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