Brock Purdy TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-210/+160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Brock Purdy's throwing precision has gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 66.4% to 71.1%.
With an excellent ratio of 1.92 per game (94th percentile), Brock Purdy has been among the top TD throwers in football this year.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest clip in the NFL vs. the Cardinals defense this year (74.6% Adjusted Completion%).
This year, the porous Cardinals defense has yielded a whopping 1.69 passing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the 4th-largest rate in the league.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the 49ers being a heavy 11.5-point favorite in this game.
The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 52.5% red zone pass rate.
The projections expect the 49ers to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 53.0 plays per game.

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