Brock Purdy TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-195/+165).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (38.5 per game) this year.
Brock Purdy's 71.4% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a substantial improvement in his passing precision over last season's 66.4% mark.
Brock Purdy has been one of the top TD passers in football this year, averaging an impressive 1.92 per game while checking in at the 89th percentile.
This year, the porous Seattle Seahawks defense has conceded a staggering 1.42 passing touchdowns per game to opposing teams: the 7th-highest rate in the league.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the 49ers being an enormous 14.5-point favorite in this week's game.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 50.5% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 53.0% red zone pass rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have only 125.9 plays on offense called: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 53.6 plays per game.

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