Brock Purdy TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-155/+125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the most passes in football (43.0 per game) this year.
Brock Purdy's 71.4% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a significant improvement in his throwing precision over last season's 66.4% rate.
With an excellent ratio of 1.73 per game (81st percentile), Brock Purdy has been among the best touchdown throwers in the league this year.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has surrendered the 2nd-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 2.09 per game this year.
The Eagles cornerbacks profile as the 4th-worst group of CBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 56.1% of their downs: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Right now, the 8th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL in the red zone (53.0% adjusted for context) according to the model is the 49ers.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the 49ers are projected by the projection model to call just 62.0 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.
The 49ers have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.

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