Brock Purdy TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Seahawks defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
Brock Purdy's 71.1% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a significant gain in his throwing accuracy over last year's 66.4% mark.
With a stellar rate of 1.80 per game (82nd percentile), Brock Purdy has been among the top touchdown throwers in the league this year.

Favors Under

With a 7-point advantage, the 49ers are heavily favored in this game, implying much more of a focus on running than their normal game plan.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Right now, the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (53.0% context-neutralized) according to the model is the San Francisco 49ers.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the 49ers are expected by the predictive model to call only 62.6 total plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.5 plays per game.

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