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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+130).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buccaneers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (39.6 per game) this year.

Brock Purdy's passing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 66.4% to 69.9%.

With an outstanding ratio of 1.67 per game (76th percentile), Brock Purdy ranks among the leading touchdown passers in the league this year.

When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Tampa Bay's CB corps has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme running game script is indicated by the 49ers being an enormous 13.5-point favorite in this game.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the 49ers to pass on 50.7% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.

At the present time, the 7th-least pass-focused offense in the NFL near the goal line (52.9% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the San Francisco 49ers.

The model projects this game to have the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 122.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The 49ers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 53.4 plays per game.

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