Brock Purdy TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the most passes in the NFL (43.2 per game) this year.
With an outstanding 69.2% Adjusted Completion% (84th percentile) this year, Brock Purdy places among the most on-target quarterbacks in football.
This year, the weak Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been torched for a whopping 1.38 passing TDs per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 9th-highest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 52.6% red zone pass rate.
The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 4th-fewest plays in football have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a lowly 53.5 per game on average).

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