Brock Purdy TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

Pittsburgh Steelers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+120/-150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Brock Purdy has been among the most accurate passers in football since the start of last season with an impressive 66.5% Completion%, ranking in the 77th percentile.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has yielded the 4th-most passing touchdowns in football: 1.65 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 10th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 2nd-least pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 55.1% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Brock Purdy has attempted a mere 19.4 passes per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 8th percentile among QBs.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.

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